— 1st Quarter (Introduction to RotoRadar NFL)—
It’s that time again! How cliche is it to lead literally everything we do regarding NFL with that statement? Here’s the issue, it’s ACCURATE. There’s not a sport in the daily fantasy sports industry that has more excitement leading up to Opening Day. There’s a very good reason for that. This is the sport that paved the way for this industry. This is the sport that made betting on a daily basis as opposed to just Season long possible. This is the sport that has had more money attached to it than any other… and it’s not close. Fantasy football is the first sport that actually planted the idea in peoples heads that this whole DFS thing was actually possible. You know what it also does?
NFL DFS BRINGS ALL OF THE FISH IN. Think about this for a second. What other sport in the daily fantasy industry has it’s own day of the week? The answer is none in case you were wondering. What does that mean? It means everyone has a “rooting interest” when it comes to the NFL. In 2016, an average of 264 million people watched football every weekend. In 2015, FanDuel and DraftKings spent more money advertising on the NFL Season than almost all of the largest beer companies. This means eyes are on the games and those same eyes are seeing the “Million Dollar Contests” that FanDuel and DraftKings are providing for it’s consumers each week. Income the fish. All of those people who are signing up and taking shots don’t know much about DFS even if they do about football. Also, the NFL technically only provides one slate of the week (even though with “primetime” slates this is a little different now with Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night Football). This means there’s more of a demand for the product. All of these reasons mentioned above are the reasons why the NFL is the single most profitable sport that yields the highest success rate. A simple equation…
☑ More advertising by FanDuel and DraftKings than any other DFS sport.
☑ More money in the prize pools of any other DFS sport.
☑ More time for research for our Pros (Only one day a week) than any other DFS sport.
☑ More fish in contests than in any other DFS sport.
➡ More edge than any other DFS sport.
My name is Sean Pfeiffer and I’m the CEO and Founder here at RotoRadar. I’m sure many of you have wondered at some point after you signed up for a NFL Pass, “What is the best way to use this membership?” Or maybe even, “How can I make the most money this weekend?” I’m here to help you answer both of those questions. I’m going to break down the four passes we offer as a company for the NFL Season; OnceHarby, FadeToBlack and the All-Access Pass. By the end of this article you should have a clear understanding on EXACTLY how to see ROI with whatever membership you have selected. If you finish reading and still have questions please feel free to reach out to me via email (Desk@RotoRadar.net) or on Twitter @RotoRadarCEO. I’d be more than happy to help you be successful with our product this NFL Season. Enough talking though… it’s time to huddle up. We have a slate to win.
— 2nd Quarter (OnceHarby – Cash Game Quarterback) —
Meet the newest Pro to the team. Believe it or not, we’ve actually improved quite a bit from last year to this Season with the addition of Zach. Our Editor-in-Cheif Pat Tursic wrote an amazing piece on Harby in a preview RotoRadar Spotlight article. To learn a little bit about his background before I dig into how to be successful with his product, read that here.
So now you understand why I said he was an amazing addition to the team. Harby is going to be your Quarterback for the duration of the NFL Season. That means, he’ll be your steady/consistent bet. In case you decided to skip over the “Spotlight” article above, I’ll give you the cliff notes. He’s good. He’s really really good. He had an 18-3 record on DraftKings last Season and 15-5 on FanDuel. 88% cash rate? Are you kidding me? Something a lot of the industry doesn’t realize is just because you have a Pro that knows what he’s doing and is successful at doing it doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to have a profitable Season. You still have to know how to use his advice. Here’s a fun question I get all of the time…
Q: But he’s providing his exact lineup he’s playing every week, why can’t I just plug-and-play and see profit?
A: You can’t be lazy when it comes to contest selection. You can’t be lazy when it comes to the time you join your contests. You can’t be lazy about knowing which head-to-head’s to scoop and which ones you should avoid. You can’t be lazy in not DOWNLOADING OUR LOGO. Sorry, I get a little more animated anytime that’s brought up (We’ll talk about it more below). My point is that we can only help you get so far. If you’re playing Harby’s lineups in large-field GPP’s every weekend and quintuple ups not even an 88% win rate will save your bankroll.
Q: So, Sean, what contests should I play with Harby’s lineups every weekend?
A: I’m so glad you asked. Let me show you…
On DraftKings these are the contests you should be joining EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND BEFORE JOINING ANYTHING ELSE:
When to join the contest above: ASAP. Join this contest as soon as you can. As you can see in the picture above it sold out 13 hours before the slate locked for Week 1. There’s no reason you shouldn’t be playing in the “Single Entry” double ups for EVERY slate every weekend. These contests will have the lowest cash lines week-in and week-out.
Contest Rating: 9.0 (Out of 10)
When to join the contest above: Sunday morning. Here’s why… the sharps are jumping in these contests on Saturday (almost always). I have no problem swimming with them if you want to. If you can avoid it, this is how. Jumping in 20-man 50-50’s on DraftKings is something I haven’t talked about nearly enough. By jumping in them a few hours before lock you avoid the “fish hawks” that jump in at the last 30 minutes before lock and the “early sharks” who jump in the night before. Also of note, playing in the larger contests (50-50’s) on DraftKings I’ve found to be much more successful. For example, the 100-man would be more ideal than the 20-man if you can choose between the two.
Contest Rating: 8.0 (Out of 10)
When to join the contest above: As needed. This one is where you have to pay attention. If there’s overlay (Contest doesn’t look like it’s going to fill before lock) it’s something you should be taking advantage of any time you can. As you can see in the screenshot above I only have two entries in this contest 12 hours before lock. My guess is it’s not going to fill and with about 10-20 minutes before lock I’ll throw in a lot more entries into this contest. This should always be the last contest you join for cash games every weekend.
Contest Rating: 7.5 (Out of 10)
On FanDuel these are the contests you should be joining EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND BEFORE JOINING ANYTHING ELSE:
1st step – Click the 50-50 tab on your computer/phone as seen above.
2nd Step – Sort the contests you want to play in by the “slate” and then by the amount you feel comfortable betting as seen above.
Final Step – Join any 100-man $10 and $25 you can afford to with your given bankroll limitations (Covered further in depth later in this article) as seen above.
When to join the contest above: Throughout the day. Again this is very important information a lot of the industry overlooks. FanDuel opens new 50-50’s up as they fill. That means you can join contests that others in the industry might not have even knew existed. These are the best contests on FanDuel by a mile. If your bankroll allows it and you can afford to join literally every 100-man 50-50. Do it. I’m not kidding.
Contest Rating: 9.5 (Out of 10)
Do you like to protect your money? I do. So does OnceHarby. If you only have a OnceHarby membership you’re not by any means at a disadvantage in GPP’s. Let me just start by saying this couldn’t be more false and it is probably the question I get the most. If he’s telling you the “safe” bet every slate and every weekend that means the players he’s not rostering typically won’t be. Right? Wrong! Listen to our free podcast on Football Post every Thursday, the two podcasts for members-only on Friday/Saturday, read his “Harby’s Huddle” NFL article every Saturday and plug in his lineup. Notice I said the word “plug” and not the word “lock.” Once you’ve gotten his lineup up in front of you, use his article and his suggestions on the podcast to make a FEW pivots off of his lineup. This is how you should approach using this membership in GPP’s. Let’s also not forget to mention the fact you can use his exact lineup in tournaments. Just because he’s a “cash” game Pro, doesn’t mean you can’t use his lineups in GPP’s. So now that you know how to approach his membership from a contrarian front, it’s probably important to cover how to use him in cash. It’s this simple… play 80% of whatever you’re betting on OnceHarby’s lineup in cash games every slate he provides for. I would almost encourage that number to be even closer to 90%. Which brings me to my next point. How much Head-to-Head exposure is too much? We’ve had Pros in the past that tell you to do a 50-50 split of cash games and head-to-heads. Due to the variance in the NFL being lower than any other sport I’d recommend you play less H2H’s than MLB or NBA. So my answer to that question would be to allocate 20% of your bet for Head-to-Heads and 700% for 50-50’s and Double-Ups (If you’re playing 90% in cash). If you want me to sum up this membership in one sentence it would be to trust the process. You’re in for a real treat this Season with someone who I believe will bring you success this Season.
— 3rd Quarter (GPP Red Zone Target FadeToBlack) —
You’re one of those live on the edge kinds of people, aren’t you? Don’t worry. I am too. FadeToBlack’s NFL membership is sure to take you for quite the ride every weekend. It’s touchdown or bust. It’s 4th and 1 at the one yard line. You’re going for it and I like your style. What is a successful GPP Season? Believe it or not, winning at any percentage higher than 20% in GPP’s is considered successful across the industry. I know, you’re probably thinking to yourself, “I didn’t sign up to win less than 50%, I could do that on my own.” I understand that line of logic, but let me digress. You signed up with a top ranked DFS GPP Pro that’s been to THREE Live Finals. He’s not just trying to min cash in GPP’s. He’s trying to help you take them down. Let me explain it like this… You purchased his membership so you’re $500 in the hole. You play $50 a weekend. You lose the first four weeks. You’re down $700. You win the fifth week and make $150. You lose the next four weeks in a row again. You’re now down $750. You win the next week and make $100. You lose three more weeks. You’re down $800 on the Season. You win $1,500 on Week 14. Now all of a sudden you’re up $700. He carries the momentum into the last three weeks winning Week 15 and Week 17 for a total profit of $200. On the Season he finishes with an overall record of 5 wins and 12 losses for a win rate of 29% and made $900 total profit (Including membership fee) on the Season. My point here in a nutshell is it only takes one lineup, one slate or one weekend to make a successful FadeToBlack Season. Don’t be discouraged if he doesn’t win at above a 50% clip. He won’t. You signed up for this membership to win the big money. So take your shots. Read his articles. Listen to his takes on our “On The RotoRadar” NFL Podcast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Play his lineups and when the big hit happens, Fade will see you at the top of the leaderboard with him on Sunday.
— 4th Quarter (All-Access Pass) —
I can tell you’re my kind of person. Why have just one thing, when you can have them BOTH?! The best Cash Game Pro (OnceHarby) and best GPP Pro (FadeToBlack) NFL Analyst’s in the world. You have all the possible tools you need to succeed every single weekend. Now what the heck do you do with all of them? I’m going to list out, in order of the safest to the most risky, how I would recommend you use our All-Access NFL Pass.
RUN HEAVY – YOUR SAFE BET
– Play 90% of whatever you’re betting on OnceHarby’s lineup. Of that 90% play 70% of it in 50-50’s and the other 20% in head-to-head’s. Play the last 10% on FadeToBlack’s lineups he will provide in single entry GPP’s. This is in an effort to maximize your ROI (Return On Investment) should he strike gold any given Sunday.
FAIR AND BALANCED
– Play 80% of whatever you’re betting on OnceHarby’s lineup. Of that 80% play 40% of it in 50-50’s and the other 40% in head-to-head’s. Play the last 20% on FadeToBlack’s lineups he will provide in the largest guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPP’s) you can possibly find. This is in an effort to maximize your ROI (Return On Investment) should he strike gold any given Sunday giving you an even higher ceiling than the “single-entry” GPP approach mentioned above.
HOT ROUTE – BUILD-YOUR-OWN APPROACH
– Play 80% of whatever you’re betting on a Build-Your-Own Cash Game lineup. Take your favorite four players from OnceHarby’s article, segment on the podcast or lineup and build a core around them. Of that 80% play 60% of it in 50-50’s and the other 20% in head-to-head’s. Play 20% of whatever you’re betting on a Build-Your-Own GPP Game lineup. Take your favorite four players from FadeToBlack’s article, segment on the podcast or lineup and build a core around those. Of that 20% play it in the largest GPP’s you can possibly find with the largest prize pool.
HAIL MARY – LOWEST FLOOR / HIGHEST CEILING
– Play 100% of your lineups in the largest single entry (or a small entry max) GPP’s you can afford to enter. Ready OnceHarby and FadeToBlack’s articles. Listen to all three “OnTheRotoRadar” NFL Podcasts for the week. Jump in the member-only chatroom and pick Andrew Melton (@SnCDrew), Chris Ward (@JJCWard) and Zach Harby’s (@OnceHarby) brain about players they like/don’t like four tournaments. Get exposure to Harby’s favorite two players to build around, play two of FadeToBlack’s pivots off of the chalk and fill the gaps with things you’ve learned from all of the resources mentioned prior. You’re taking a huge risk, but the reward if this approach hits is second to none.
— Overtime (Final Thoughts) —
Thank you for taking a good amount of time out of your day to read this article. I want to personally thank all of you for being RotoRadar members. If you’re reading this that means you’ve taken a leap of faith with us this NFL Season. As I’ve said now for more than three years, this is a marathon and not a sprint. One weekend doesn’t dictate your success or failure. If you follow this Playbook to a tee there are a multitude of different ways you can see a positive ROI with us this NFL Season. Pick your strategy and stick to it. If you want to change, don’t be afraid to, but please stick with the same formula for at least four weeks before making any changes. I have a typical four week rule when it comes to DFS that I live and die by. If something isn’t working after four weeks you can make an adjustment comfortably.
I want to bring over something I made for the MLB Season that has worked WONDERS for my personal bankroll and I know a lot of members as well. So here’s how I would personally recommend you bet based on OnceHarby’s 5-Star scale he’ll be providing you every week. If you want to scale up a LITTLE bit, you can. The numbers were meant for the MLB Season (higher variance sport).
MAS47’s BANKROLL MANAGEMENT KEY:
BR = The percentage of your bankroll you should be betting each night for each slate rating. For example, if you have $500 in your FanDuel account to start the Season and you bet 10% on a 5-Star slate that would be $50. Say the amount in your account increases up to $650 by the second week. You should be betting $65 on a 5-Star slate (10%).
(CASH/GPP) = This is the total amount of the percentage you should be investing into cash games as apposed to GPP’s (Guaranteed Prize Pools). A cash game would be considered a 50/50 where the top half of the field gets paid out. If it’s a 5-Star night and you’re betting 10% of your $1,000 bankroll. You should have a total bet of $100 and if you’re betting 80-20 it should be allocated as $80 in cash games and $20 in tournaments or GPP’s.
When you win, because you will, please don’t forget to use the hashtag #RotoRadarNFL on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. Each time you do it you’ll earn a ticket to our Monthly Raffle and our $20,000 Raffle in February. This is going to be an incredibly successful and fun NFL Season. We’re all on the same team and we fully plan to hit the competition so hard they fumble.
So… are you ready for some RotoRadar football?!?!
RotoRadar CEO and Founder