A Through Z’s ABCs Sunday, 11-18-18

Hello RotoRadar members and welcome to A Through Z’s ABCs! The goal of this article will be to highlight the top-3 players, trends, revenge narratives, industry insights, or really anything NBA DFS-related that you need to know for the slate tonight. I hope everyone is having a great weekend and is ready to win some cash tonight! With that said, let’s get into the ABCs:

 

A. Small Slates

If you have been a RotoRadar subscriber for some time now, you will notice that sometimes the stars that MAS47 assigns to his slates are directly related to the size of the slate. In other words, in a small slate like the one tonight, it would be surprising to see the RotoRadar CEO rank the slate a 4 or 5 star slate. This is due to the variance and potential decreased edge that naturally occurs when there are fewer games on the schedule. What this means is that you should be limiting the amount of money that you have in play on small slates like this, because there is more risk involved with a smaller player pool. (You end up having to look at value plays like Kevon Looney and Jonas Jerebko..)

B. Recency Bias with a Side of Revenge

It is definitely unfortunate that the Heat/Lakers game has the highest total tonight, as that will draw extra interest and ownership to a game that I was all over before I even looked at Vegas totals. Lonzo Ball is one of the strongest GPP plays in this small 4 game slate tonight at any back court position. His ownership will be deflated since he absolutely flopped as the chalk last game against the Magic, however the entire Lakers team essentially flopped that game. (Outside of Brandon Ingram) I think going back to the well here on Ball with Rondo out, in the highest total game of the night, against a team ranked middle of the road in DEFF against the PG position is a very sharp move. Oh and then there is that Lebron James guy who will be facing off against his former team, and we know what an emotional guy Lebron can be when discussing former teams. (“CLEVELAND, THIS IS FOR YOU!!!”) Do not let the strong heat Defensive Efficiency against SF scare you away from the match-up proof best basketball player in the world. Not to mention, Durant at $300 cheaper on DK will draw plenty of ownership off of Lebron, and with solid value scarce on this 4 game slate, it is impossible to build a lineup with both studs that you can feel good about.

C. Are the Warriors Really Broken?

With all of that said about Lebron, Durant is still a really solid option tonight and I think building lineups rotating in one of each of these two guys is a solid strategy. Durant has not had a great game since the Draymond blowup, but his price has begun to drop and he is down below $11K on DK. While the match-up is not ideal, Durant’s sky-high usage rate with Steph and Draymond off the court certainly makes up for it. Klay Thompson has also been smashing, but his price is reaching the point where he needs to hit a large % of his jumpers to even hit 5x, I think he is a sharp fade tonight, but is still viable given his ability to rack up 3’s. I am off Cook tonight due to the lack of minutes he has been seeing lately, and Jerebko is a scary yet serviceable value if you are in a pinch. Much more comfortable using him on FD where his potential dud will get dropped.

 

I hope everyone has a great Sunday night and an even better Thanksgiving. I will be back here on Friday for another edition of A Through Z’s ABC’s! #GoodSkill tonight!

 

-AZ