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DOTA2 Model Explanation

Anthony S

Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my DOTA2 that I post on my Twitter and in the RotoRadar discord — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model!

HOW TO READ THE MODEL:

  • General Info
    • Player – The in-game name of the person
    • Team – The abbreviation of the player’s team
    • Line – What the prop book line has the players line set to
  • Book Info
    • Odds – The odds of the matchup the player’s team is in
    • Scenario – This is based on sportsbook odds and the scenario displayed is the Highest Probable Outcome (HPO)
      • 2-0 means the HPO for X player/team is to win the series 2-0
      • 0-2 means the HPO for X player/team is to lose the series 0-2
      • 1-1 means the HPO for X player/team is for the series to be tied 1-1 after 2 maps
    • % – This show the percentage of the HPO occurring
  • Map Projection
    • Map Win – This shows how many kills X player is projected to get in a map win
    • Map Loss – This shows how many kills X player is projected to get in a map win
    • This section is useful if you’re looking to build a different script compared to the HPO or for map 3 plays
  • Series Projection
    • Maps 1-2 – This takes the Highest Probable Outcome (HPO) and creates a kill projection for X player
    • Diff – This shows a difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
  • Examples
    • In the model, NothingToSay is a -4.3 diff which means that the HPO projection has him projected at 4.3 less than his line set by the prop book. His under 16.5 kills would be in play.
    • Another example is PiPi which has a 3.6 difference in the model. The HPO projection has him projected for 3.6 more kills than his line set by the prop book. His over 15.5 kills would be in play.

WHERE CAN I WATCH THE GAMES?

  • Watch live
    • The game is available to view on Twitch. The stream varies, but if you go under the DOTA2 category, you’ll be able to look through the DOTA2 streams. The games are typically in the title of the stream.
  • Box scores
    • After each game, a box score is updated on various sites. The two I like to use are 1337pro and sofascore.
  • Have questions?

As always, trust the data, not your emotions. Talk soon.