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NHL Shots on Goal Model Explanation

Anthony S

Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my NHL Shots on Goal Model (SOG) that I post on Pikkit — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model and how you can use it to your advantage when making SOG selections!

HOW TO READ THE MODEL:

  • Above is an example model from the 1/11/2023 NHL slate. There are two sections of data that we are looking at here.
    • On the left side, it shows the Full Season data of each team.
    • On the right side, it shows a more recent sample of data for each team. This can be used to see how each team is trending defensively at each position.
  • At the top, you will see a header that has 5 different sections (TEAM, LW, C, RW, DEF).
    • TEAM – Self-explanatory, this column has the teams abbreviation
    • LW – This column has the rankings of each team at the Left Wing position
    • C – This column has the rankings of each team at the Center position
    • RW – This column has the rankings of each team at the Right Wing position
    • DEF – This column has the rankings of each team at the Defense position
  • Now I am sure you’re asking, what do all the numbers mean? Let’s talk about that.
    • Every position is on a 1-32 scale.
    • The lower the number, the tougher the opponent is at the SOG position which favors the under.
      • An example of a good under play is Matt Duchene Under 2.5 SOG. At the time of the article, he was playing Right Wing (RW). If you look at the model, you’ll see TOR gives up the 3rd least SOG vs. RW this season and the least SOG vs. RW in the last 20 games.
      • An example of a good over play is Alexander Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG. At the time of the article, he was playing Left Wing (LW). If you look at the model, see PHI gives up the 3rd most SOG vs. LW this season and the 5th most SOG vs. LW in the last 20 games.
    • The model should be used as a guide to assist decision-making and should not be the sole piece of information used. Personally, I like to use props.cash during my research process.
  • Where I can find what position each player is at?
    • To find which position each player is at, I use Daily Faceoff. Under the Line Combinations page, it’ll show you the lineup that the respective team used either in their previous games or during the morning skate.
  • Have questions?

As always, trust the data, not your emotions. Talk soon.