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WEEK 18 NFL PLAYER INCENTIVES

Jared@RotoRadar

It’s that time of the year once again! NFL players will be chasing stats, records, and money incentives across the league as the regular season comes to a close. You can take advantage of these narratives in betting markets this weekend via prop books, sportsbooks, and daily fantasy. Below is a running list of player incentives that need to be considered for Week 18.

Potential Record Breaking Scenarios
  • Patrick Mahomes is chasing the single-season passing yard record entering Week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are also facing a situation where they need to win in order to obtain the No. 1 seed and bye week in the AFC. Mahomes currently needs 430 passing yards to break the record and has thrown for over 400 yards twice this season. The Raiders give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Kansas City under Reid/Mahomes historically have not shied away from these types of scenarios.
  • Travis Kelce is 13 receptions away from breaking Zach Ertz’s 2018 reception record (116). While Kelce sits at 104 total receptions this season and his career high in one game is 12 catches, you can find most of his reception props way lower than that record breaking line (PrizePicks Code “Radar” – 6 Receptions // Underdog Fantasy Code “RotoRadar” – 6.5 Receptions).
  • Davante Adams is 13 receptions away from breaking the Raiders’ single-season team record. Currently sitting at 95 receptions, he’s chasing Darren Waller’s 107 from a few years back. While the Raiders have nothing to play for mathematically, there will be a ton of turnover with this current roster after Saturday’s game ends. If Jarrett Stidham is playing for his job (which he is), Adams could be a main beneficiary of that.
  • Josh Jacobs is 152 rushing yards away from the Raiders’ single-season team record. Marcus Allen, one of the most famous and respected Raiders of all time, still holds the franchise record of 1,759…Jacobs can clear that today in potentially his last game in the black and silver. Jacobs also leads the NFL in rushing yards through 17 games and can put the cherry on top of his free agency value with a rushing title. He ran for 154 yards in the last matchup against the Chiefs in Week 5. Note that Jacobs did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a hip injury and coach talk has stated that the team may elect to give rookie Zamir White snaps, but Jacobs should still have a serviceable workload in this spot.
  • Tyler Allgeier is 124 rushing yards away from breaking the Atlanta Falcons rookie record. Considering Cordarrelle Patterson’s age/injuries at the end of the season where this game means nothing to either side (Tampa has clinched and won’t be playing many starters, Atlanta is eliminated), the Falcons could just give Allgeier most, if not all of the running back touches. Tyler Allgeier has amassed 17 rushing attempts in three straight games.
  • Chris Olave is 156 receiving yards short of the Saints’ rookie receiving record. He will be chasing Michael Thomas’ record of 1,137 yards from 2016. Olave will see a soft matchup against a Carolina Panthers secondary without Jaycee Horn that gave up 10-207-3 to Mike Evans and 9-120 to Chris Godwin. The Panthers rank fourth-worst against the WR position this season.
  • David Njoku is chasing career high stats. He needs two receptions and 54 receiving yards to clear previous records. Cleveland has nothing to play for in Week 18 but they do get solid matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers secondary where they can play division spoiler and knock their rivals out of postseason contention.
  • Amari Cooper is also chasing career high stats. Cooper will need to reach 81 receiving yards to break previous records from his time as a Dallas Cowboy. Offensive Coordinator Alex Van Pelt has stated publicly that he would like to get Cooper this record in Week 18. Cleveland has nothing to play for in Week 18 but they do get solid matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers secondary where they can play division spoiler and knock their rivals out of postseason contention.
  • Tom Brady is chasing a few milestones, as if he has any left to break. He currently needs 390 passing yards to pass for 5,000 this season (which would be the second-straight year). Brady also needs 9 completions to break the single-season record that he set himself last year as a Buccaneer, and he also needs 12 pass attempts to break another single-season record. While there’s nothing to play for here in terms of playoff motivation, HC Todd Bowles has made it known that the starters for Tampa will play, it’s just a matter of how much.
  • Justin Jefferson is 194 receiving yards away from breaking the single-season receiving record. JJ has reached this number or has gotten within 20 yards of it three times this season. Facing the Bears swiss-cheese defense that just wants their horrific regular season to end, the spot itself for Jefferson couldn’t be better on paper. The problem is the lack of motivation that the Vikings face with little to no reason to play starters much in Week 18 given where they are in the standings. They could move up in the seedings to the No. 2 spot, but all things considered it is highly unlikely that happens (Eagles/Niners are two-touchdown favorites). If KOC allows Jefferson to attempt to break the record and he gets hurt in this game and that affects their playoff run, the young HC will never be able to live that one down.
  • Austin Ekeler is 14 receptions away from having the most catches by any running back in a regular season. While he’s been able to hit ten receptions in three games this season, the Chargers may not need to play their starters much if the Ravens lose to the Bengals in the 1 pm window. This is a very fluid situation and all Chargers incentives will have to be taken with a grain of salt. If the Ravens win in the 1 pm window, then the Chargers will be more likely to play starters a full four quarters to ensure a matchup with the AFC South Champion next week.
  • Justin Herbert is 34 completions away from breaking the single-season record. Now, this does hedge on Tom Brady not playing a full game in the early window of games on Sunday, but Herbert could theoretically get there. Again, the grain of salt rule applies to all Chargers.
  • Stefon Diggs needs two receiving touchdowns to set the Bills’ single-season franchise record. Diggs currently sits at 10 receiving touchdowns and needs to break Bill Brooks’ franchise mark of 11 to claim this milestone. Buffalo is extremely motivated to maintain the No. 2 seed if the Chiefs win on Saturday night, and may even have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC if Kansas City loses to Las Vegas early in the weekend.
  • Jalen Hurts needs two rushing touchdowns to set the single-season record for a QB. Even despite missing a few games with a shoulder injury, Hurts can still beat Cam Newton’s rushing TD record in 2022. The Eagles need to win in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC and will face the Giants who have nothing to play for. The latter part does bring some concern with it, but Philly’s team total of 29 paired with Hurts’ elite rushing share in the red zone does offer a bit of juice.
  • CeeDee Lamb is 10 receptions away from the Cowboys’ franchise single-season record. Currently at 102 receptions, Lamb will be looking to break fan-favorite Michael Irvin’s mark of 111 from the 90s. The Cowboys currently can still clinch the No. 1 overall seed of the Eagles lose and they get some help around the rest of the league.
  • Jahan Dotson on the other side of this Cowboys game is currently one touchdown short of setting the Washington Commanders’ franchise record for a rookie. Terry McLaurin and Dotson are currently tied with this number of seven, but Washington has nothing to play for outside of spoilers.
  • Jamaal Williams has lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns for the majority of the season and can use Sunday Night Football against his old team in the Green Bay Packers as a platform to secure his title. Williams is also two rushing touchdowns behind Lion legend Barry Sanders, making comments that he “was coming for Barry” this weekend. If Seattle beats the Rams in the 4 pm window on Sunday afternoon, Detroit’s playoff hopes are unfortunately washed away, so there may not be much to play for outside of reaching milestones.
Money Incentives
  • Patrick Mahomes can make an additional $1.25M if he wins NFL MVP this season. In addition to the records he’s chasing and a shot at the bye week/No. 1 overall seed, there’s an added cherry on top of the motivational Saturday for the Chiefs QB.
  • There is a laundry list of incentives for Jaguar wide receivers heading into a must-win AFC South title game. Christian Kirk needs two receptions to earn a $500,000 bonus as well as 91 receiving yards to earn an additional $500,000 bonus. Kirk sits at 1,009 receiving yards and gets bonuses for every increment of 100 reached after 1,000.
  • Similar to Kirk, Zay Jones needs two receptions to earn $250,000 and 98 receiving yards to earn an additional $500,000. His prop of 57.5 receiving yards is way too low across all markets in a must-win game against a Titans bottom-five secondary.
  • Evan Engram wraps up Jacksonville receiving core incentives with needing either 11 receptions OR 61 receiving yards to earn a $200,000 bonus. While that reception number is lofty, Engram should be able to hit that receiving yard number if we expect Lawrence to drop back as much as he did in the first matchup. Engram torched Tennessee for 11-162-2 in Week 14.
  • Carl Lawson needs just one sack to earn a $600,000 contract bonus. He will face a bottom-five offensive line in Miami that is operating with Skylar Thompson in Week 18.
  • Za’Darius Smith needs one sack to earn a $750,000 bonus. The Vikings edge rusher will be lining up against a Chicago Bears offense that will be lead by Nathan Peterman.
  • Hayden Hurst needs two receptions to receive $125,000. Cincinnati needs to win to clinch the AFC North against the Ravens. Expect Hurst to get involved early just like he was in the first quarter of Week 17’s suspended game. Hurst also could earn an additional $125,000 if he reaches 100 receiving yards and $125,000 if he scores three touchdowns in Week 18.
  • Isaiah McKenzie needs 46 receiving yards to capture a $100,000 contract incentive. Currently sitting at 404 receiving yards, McKenzie earns bonuses for 350, 450, 550, and 600 yard increments. He also is ten receptions away from $100,000, but the former seems likelier.
  • Tyler Higbee is 13 receiving yards away from a $125,000 bonus. I’d probably stay away from this one on prop books, as I’ve seen lines set way north of 30 recently. Higbee could easily get targeted early, hit the 13 yard receiving mark, and then exit this game. The Rams have nothing to play for and have no draft picks to tank for.
  • Deebo Samuel is active for Week 18, meaning his rushing yard incentive is still on the table. He’s currently 152 rushing yards away from earning $500,000. The Niners will be motivated to win, although they are 14-point favorites against Arizona.
  • Just like the aforementioned records, the Chargers have many players that also could potentially earn contract bonuses. Gerald Everett currently is five receptions away from $250,000.
  • In addition to Everett, WR DeAndre Carter is two receptions away from $100,000, 55 receiving yards away from $100,000, and two touchdowns away from $250,000. If the Chargers don’t have anything to play for at the 4 pm window (Bengals would have to beat Ravens), Carter could operate as the team’s WR1 with a backup offense on the field, which could result into an “incentive based” game.
  • Packers DL staple Preston Smith needs 1.5 sacks to earn a $1M bonus. The Packers win and they are in to the NFC playoff picture, Sunday’s game will be played at 30 degree Lambeau Field where Jared Goff is known to struggle.
  • Kalif Raymond leads the way for Lion player incentives on Sunday night. He needs seven receptions to earn $250,000 and 50 receiving yards to additionally secure another $250,000 bonus. The Lions may or may not have any motivation outside of player incentives come SNF.
  • In addition to the rushing touchdown records, Jamaal Williams just needs six rushing yards to earn an additional $250,000. He should get this on the first drive on Sunday night.