All posts by Anthony S

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CSGO Model Explanation

Anthony S

Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my CSGO that I post on my Twitter and in the RotoRadar discord — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model!

HOW TO READ THE MODEL:

  • Header Definitions
    • Player – The name of the person in-game
    • TM – The team that the player is on
    • Odds – The sportsbook odds of the players team for the matchup
    • K Line – The line that the players kill line is on the prop book
    • HS Line – The line that the players headshot line is on the prop book
    • K Proj – The kill projection for the player
    • Diff – The difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
    • HS Proj – The headshot projection for the player
    • Diff – The difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
  • Examples
    • GruBy has a +3.53 diff for his K Proj which means he’s projected to get 3.53 more kills than what his K Line is set to. So he’d be an over play.
    • MUTiRiS has a -2.59 diff for his K Proj which means he’s projected to get 2.59 fewer kills than what his K Line is set to. So he’d be an under play.
    • Players that I like to target are ones with a +/- of 3. On smaller slates, with can go down to a +/- of 2 or 1.
  • Gamestacks
    • Correlation is the name of the game here. For game stacks, I like to have 4+ players from the same game. Sometimes 3 is ok if there’s enough value.
    • Game stacks have a bit different parameters compared to picking plays from any game. What I l like to do is find a game that has four positive differences of 1 or more from the model…OR a game that has four negative differences of 1 or more from the model.
    • Why? Let’s take the UNG/NEM series from the model as an example. All the players have a positive difference of at least 1. If the game has extended rounds or overtime, all the players benefit from the extra rounds.
    • It is preferred to not stack overs and unders from the same game together as they negatively correlate with each other. With an over, you are rooting for a competitive series with a long of rounds. With an under, you are rooting for a non-competitive series that has blowouts.

WHERE CAN I WATCH THE GAMES?

  • Watch live
    • The game is available to view on Twitch. The stream varies, but if you go under the CSGO category, you’ll be able to look through the CSGO streams. The games are typically in the title of the stream.
  • Box scores
    • The best place to go for box scores is without a doubt HLTV.org. Under the matches category, you can select the match you are looking for. Once there, there’s a live kill feed along with them updating the full box score shortly after the conclusion of each game.
  • Have questions?

As always, trust the data, not your emotions. Talk soon.

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DOTA2 Model Explanation

Anthony S

Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my DOTA2 that I post on my Twitter and in the RotoRadar discord — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model!

HOW TO READ THE MODEL:

  • General Info
    • Player – The in-game name of the person
    • Team – The abbreviation of the player’s team
    • Line – What the prop book line has the players line set to
  • Book Info
    • Odds – The odds of the matchup the player’s team is in
    • Scenario – This is based on sportsbook odds and the scenario displayed is the Highest Probable Outcome (HPO)
      • 2-0 means the HPO for X player/team is to win the series 2-0
      • 0-2 means the HPO for X player/team is to lose the series 0-2
      • 1-1 means the HPO for X player/team is for the series to be tied 1-1 after 2 maps
    • % – This show the percentage of the HPO occurring
  • Map Projection
    • Map Win – This shows how many kills X player is projected to get in a map win
    • Map Loss – This shows how many kills X player is projected to get in a map win
    • This section is useful if you’re looking to build a different script compared to the HPO or for map 3 plays
  • Series Projection
    • Maps 1-2 – This takes the Highest Probable Outcome (HPO) and creates a kill projection for X player
    • Diff – This shows a difference between the line set by the prop book and the projection from the model
  • Examples
    • In the model, NothingToSay is a -4.3 diff which means that the HPO projection has him projected at 4.3 less than his line set by the prop book. His under 16.5 kills would be in play.
    • Another example is PiPi which has a 3.6 difference in the model. The HPO projection has him projected for 3.6 more kills than his line set by the prop book. His over 15.5 kills would be in play.

WHERE CAN I WATCH THE GAMES?

  • Watch live
    • The game is available to view on Twitch. The stream varies, but if you go under the DOTA2 category, you’ll be able to look through the DOTA2 streams. The games are typically in the title of the stream.
  • Box scores
    • After each game, a box score is updated on various sites. The two I like to use are 1337pro and sofascore.
  • Have questions?

As always, trust the data, not your emotions. Talk soon.

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NHL Shots on Goal Model Explanation

Anthony S

Hey everyone, my name is Anthony, also known as LinkDFS! I have received a lot of questions regarding my NHL Shots on Goal Model (SOG) that I post on Pikkit — so I have decided to write an article explaining the proper way to view the model and how you can use it to your advantage when making SOG selections!

HOW TO READ THE MODEL:

  • Above is an example model from the 1/11/2023 NHL slate. There are two sections of data that we are looking at here.
    • On the left side, it shows the Full Season data of each team.
    • On the right side, it shows a more recent sample of data for each team. This can be used to see how each team is trending defensively at each position.
  • At the top, you will see a header that has 5 different sections (TEAM, LW, C, RW, DEF).
    • TEAM – Self-explanatory, this column has the teams abbreviation
    • LW – This column has the rankings of each team at the Left Wing position
    • C – This column has the rankings of each team at the Center position
    • RW – This column has the rankings of each team at the Right Wing position
    • DEF – This column has the rankings of each team at the Defense position
  • Now I am sure you’re asking, what do all the numbers mean? Let’s talk about that.
    • Every position is on a 1-32 scale.
    • The lower the number, the tougher the opponent is at the SOG position which favors the under.
      • An example of a good under play is Matt Duchene Under 2.5 SOG. At the time of the article, he was playing Right Wing (RW). If you look at the model, you’ll see TOR gives up the 3rd least SOG vs. RW this season and the least SOG vs. RW in the last 20 games.
      • An example of a good over play is Alexander Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG. At the time of the article, he was playing Left Wing (LW). If you look at the model, see PHI gives up the 3rd most SOG vs. LW this season and the 5th most SOG vs. LW in the last 20 games.
    • The model should be used as a guide to assist decision-making and should not be the sole piece of information used. Personally, I like to use props.cash during my research process.
  • Where I can find what position each player is at?
    • To find which position each player is at, I use Daily Faceoff. Under the Line Combinations page, it’ll show you the lineup that the respective team used either in their previous games or during the morning skate.
  • Have questions?

As always, trust the data, not your emotions. Talk soon.