Start
Daniel Jones – QB – New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (Khai Berry)
The Vikings are the 26th defense versus the Quarterback position this season. In 5 of their last 6 games they have given up 300+ yards passing. With Hurts missing for the Eagles, this game has moved up in importance for both teams. Most importantly, this game is inside and away from any weather on a week that has limited dome games.
David Montgomery – RB – Chicago Bears vs. Buffalo Bills (Chris Hendrickson)
Khalil Herbert is designated to return this week but that doesn’t scare me off of this Montgomery spot. The Bears RB1 has scored at least 13 PPR points in four straight games. Buffalo has allowed running backs to get free for at least 12 PPR points in four straight. Do you see where I’m going? Buffalo has also allowed three touchdowns to running backs in the last four weeks. The Bears have only lost 3 games by 9+ points the entire season, which would mean the run game won’t be completely abandoned. With the lack of receivers in Chicago, Montgomery has also caught three passes in the last four games. I expect a slight downtick in the passing game with Herbert this week, especially returning from injury in cold weather. But I would also assume they try to keep their two most talented guys on the field in two running back sets most of the game.
Tyler Allgeier – RB – Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens (Chris Hendrickson)
This might sound crazy but I like this spot for Tyler Allgeier against the best run defense in the NFL. He’s coming off a career day Week 15. This might sound kind of chasey but I think Week 15 was the start of the Allgeier show. This Atlanta offensive line has been blocking their tails off and I think they can find a way to get up to this monstrous second level of the defense. Lamar Jackson has already been ruled out and Snoop Huntley will be under center. There is a significant chance that this Atlanta offense sees short fields for most of the game. I like this spot for Allgeier to stay hot versus a Baltimore team trending in the wrong direction. Baltimore has not won and covered a home game since November of last season (8 games).
Darius Slayton – WR – New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (Chris Hendrickson)
Slayton became a Giants starter in Week 5. His 620 receiving yards since becoming a starter ranks 20th among wide receivers. His 131 yards after contact during that time ranks 11th most among wide receivers. If you can’t tell, we really like this Giants team against this Vikings team giving up huge numbers defensively. The Vikings have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Slayton isn’t a huge name at this point but he’s the most consistent option for Danny Dimes and the New York offense. Add in the fact this game is inside during a weekend the entire country is expecting brutal weather, he is a must-start if available in this spot.
Dallas Goedert – TE – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (Khai Berry)
Goedert averages over 6 targets a game, he is the middle of the field safety valve for this Eagles offense. The last time he played with Minshew, who will start this week for Philly, Goedert finished with 105 yards and 2 TDs. This is a big game for the Eagles to clinch the number 1 seed and not have to rush back Hurts. Trust Goedert.
SIT
Jared Goff – QB – Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (Chris Hendrickson)
I said this last week and I’m going to continue to say it this week. I’m fading Jared Goff outdoors. Especially given the weather conditions across the country, Jared Goff could be in a world of hurt. Goff has finished as QB15 or lower in eight of his past ten games. The Panthers have now allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since Week 3. Carolina has also been efficient in run defense aside from a few significant outlier weeks. This will put the ball into Goff’s hands more, which means more opportunities for turnovers and mistakes. I’ll continue to fade Goff outdoors until proven otherwise.
Tua Tagovialoa – QB – Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers (Chris Hendrickson)
I’m a firm believer that the tape is out on this McDaniel’s offense with Tua at the helm. Drop your linebackers 5 yards deeper to take away the middle of the field and force Tua to throw to the numbers, which he has struggled to do his entire career. The Packers rank 3rd in passing DVOA against passes over the middle of the field. The Packers have allowed one quarterback to pass the 300-yard mark all season. Not only that but they have held half of opposing teams they’ve faced to less than 200 yards through the air. I don’t see a Christmas miracle for Tua this holiday season. I expect this Packers team (who still can make the playoffs) to show up ready to go in Miami on Christmas day. I’m fading Tua in this matchup.
Brian Robinson – RB – Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers (Khai Berry)
49ers Defense, do I really need to say more?
I do. Okay, the Niners give up 13.1 fantasy points to the running back position per game. They also are chasing the number 2 seed with the recent news of Jalen Hurts. This is not a good week for Brian Robinson Jr. or the entire Washington offense. No thanks.
Gabe Davis – WR – Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears (Chris Hendrickson)
If you’re still waiting on Gabe Davis to be “Gabe Davis”, you might be waiting until the fantasy championship. This on paper is a good matchup but I’m afraid of the Chicago weather more than the defense. Chicago is expected to have single digit temperatures with a wind chill feeling of -10 or worse. They are forecasting constant 20mph winds with gusts up to 35-40mph. These winds will clearly make it very difficult to throw the ball deep. With an aDOT of 15.9, Davis will be the receiver who is hurt most by these conditions.
Ceedee Lamb – WR – Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Khai Berry)
The Eagles rank #7 in fewest points allowed to the wide receiver position as a whole this season, allowing 18.8 points to the entire position per game. Yes, it’s a near must-win for both teams, but this Eagles team has shown up in big games (see Justin Jefferson).
Weekly Positional Rankings via Phantasia Sports:
